Ray Dalio
and
Warren Buffett
are both at the top of their profession: Dalio's Bridgewater
Associates usurped the title of best-performing money management
firm in history from
George Soros
in recent years.
Warren Buffett
of Berkshire Hathaway is the preeminent investor of the century
with a long track record of above-average returns.
As investors, they could not be more different. Warren Buffett
famously assesses the strength of companies' fundamentals when
researching stocks, looking for good but cheap businesses. Ray
Dalio is a macro investor who hunts for companies poised to
benefit from macro events he predicts based on his unique
economic model. Yet, in the intersection of their views lie
several stocks they both embrace. The largest on the list are:
General Electric (
GE
), Johnson & Johnson (
JNJ
) and Davita (
DVA
).
These results were found using GuruFocus' Aggregated Portfolio
Screener, which finds the stocks that two or more investors like.
General Electric (
GE
)
Ray Dalio owns 886,750 shares of GE, valued as $18 million as of
March 31, 2012, which accounts for 0.28% of his equity portfolio.
Warren Buffett owns 7,777,900 shares of GE, valued as $156
million as of March 31, 2012, which accounts for 0.21% of his
equity portfolio.
General Electric matches Buffett's "buy and hold forever" type of
company. He bought his holding over five years ago, and it is one
of the largest and most diversified industrial corporations in
the world. From 2002 to 2008, its revenue increased annually
except for one year, and it has produced steady cash flow over
$20 billion for the last decade. In the fourth quarter of 2011,
GE generated record cash from industrial operating activities of
$5.5 billion.
Revenue at GE declined 2 percent in 2011 over 2010, and was up 7
percent excluding the impact of NBC Universal. General Electric
sold its majority stake in NBCUniversal to Comcast in January
2011.
The company, which was hit hard by the financial crisis, had to
slash its dividend from $1.24 a year in 2008 to $0.61 a year in
2009. In December 2011, it was able to increase its quarterly
dividend for the fourth time in two years as its financial
situation improved. The raise was $0.02 to $0.17.
Ray Dalio has also bought and sold shares of GE for over five
years. Most recently, he sold 218,600 shares in the first quarter
at an average price of $19. Last year, he bought and sold shares
in each quarter as the stock vacillated between a broad 52-week
range of $14 to $21, reflecting his shorter-term strategy.
General Electric has a market cap of $196.29 billion; its shares
were traded at around $18.65 with a P/E ratio of 13.5 and P/S
ratio of 1.3. The dividend yield of General Electric stocks is
3.7%.
Johnson & Johnson (
JNJ
)
Ray Dalio owns 222,093 shares of JNJ, valued as $15 million as of
March 31, 2012, which accounts for 0.23% of his equity portfolio.
Warren Buffett owns 29,018,127 shares of JNJ, valued as $1.9
billion as of March 31, 2012, which accounts for 2.5% of his
equity portfolio.
Warren Buffett had been holding Johnson and Johnson for a
long-term period, but recently began reducing his stake, selling
a total of 13,606,436 shares in 2011.
In March 2012, Buffett said that he would consider selling his
stake in the company because of its recent problems. "J&J
obviously has messed up in a lot of ways in the last few years,"
he said on a CNBC interview. "You know, my friend Jim Burke used
to run that and it does not have the reputation now that it had,
you know, a few years back. It's still got a lot of wonderful
products and it's got a wonderful balance sheet and all of that,
but there have been too many mistakes made at Johnson &
Johnson."
He added that the company was "still an attractive business at
its price," but if he needed money it would be on his sell list.
J&J has had several product recalls in recent years and most
recently, in the first quarter of 2012, it had a suspension of
manufacturing at its McNeil Consumer Healthcare facility in
Pennsylvania that significantly impacted U.S. sales of over the
counter medicines.
Ray Dalio also sold about half of his much smaller holding in the
first quarter and has made numerous short-term trades of the
company for over five years.
Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a
broad range of products in the health care field in many
countries of the world. Johnson & Johns has a market cap of
$169.62 billion; its shares were traded at around $62.53 with a
P/E ratio of 12.3 and P/S ratio of 2.6. The dividend yield of
Johnson & Johns stocks is 3.9%. Johnson & Johns had an
annual average earnings growth of 7.2% over the past 10 years.
GuruFocus rated Johnson & Johns the business predictability
rank of 4-star.
Davita (
DVA
)
Ray Dalio owns 151,263 shares of DVA, valued as $14 million as of
March 31, 2012, which accounts for 0.21% of his equity portfolio.
Warren Buffett owns 6,000,000 shares of DVA, valued as $541
million as of March 31, 2012, which accounts for 0.72% of his
equity portfolio.
It is speculated that newly purchased Davita was a stock chosen
by one of Buffett's new investment managers. The company has an
outstanding balance sheet with a 10-year annual revenue growth
rate of 18.6%, 17.8% for EBITDA and 10.8 percent for free cash
flow. It bears $1.9 billion in cash and about $5 billion in
long-term liabilities and debt.
Davita provides kidney dialysis treatment to patients with
chronic kidney failure and end state renal disease. It has 1,841
outpatient dialysis centers in the U.S. serving about 145,000
patients each week. There are almost 400000 kidney patients who
undergo dialysis in the U.S. in every year. Davita has a small
international presence with 15 dialysis centers in three
countries outside the U.S. It also leads the nation in many areas
measuring quality of care.
In the first quarter of 2012, Davita acquired 28 centers and
opened 13 in the U.S. It also opened four centers outside the
U.S. It raised its operating income guidance for 2012 to $1.23
billion to $1.31 billion, from its previous estimate of $1.2
billion to $1.2 billion.
Though the industry is quite consolidated which will limit future
acquisitions, the company expects to achieve growth also through
an expected increase in the number of patients each year, de
novos and same-store growth and financial leverage possible in
the form of additional debt or buying back stock, Davita CEO Kent
Thiry said on the first quarter conference call.
The company is also expecting pricing pressure on the cost of
care per patient due to higher pharma expense, wage and benefit
costs and travel costs.
Davita Inc. has a market cap of $7.52 billion; its shares were
traded at around $83.83 with a P/E ratio of 14.2 and P/S ratio of
1.1. Davita Inc. had an annual average earnings growth of 17.8%
over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Davita Inc. the business
predictability rank of 3.5-star.
Ray Dalio`s Investment Commentary - Tracking Dalio`s Media Appearances And Market Commentary
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Texas Teachers' Harris Taking Alternative Investing to New Risk
June
6 (Bloomberg) -- After working for almost two decades as a money
manager, Britt Harris at age 45 was what most people would consider a
success. Bridgewater Associates LP's Ray Dalio and Bob Prince had just
tapped him to be chief executive officer of the world's largest hedge
fund.
A father of four, Harris also found time to coach his
kids' baseball teams and teach Bible classes at his church. Still,
something was gnawing at him. "I didn't sleep for one night," the Texas
native recalls. "I didn't sleep for a week. Then, after not having slept
for three months, I told Bob and Ray I wanted to resign."
Although Prince and Dalio urged Harris to remain, he
quit Bridgewater in June 2005 after just six months, Bloomberg Markets
magazine reports in its July issue. Harris says he felt that he wasn't
contributing enough to the firm or the wider world, so he embarked on an
18-month-long search for meaning. He traveled to Asia and New Zealand.
He tried teaching, setting up a class on investing at Texas A&M
University, his alma mater.
Then, in late 2006, a headhunter approached him about taking the top investing job at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas.
It was a place where he could make an impact. With
$110.3 billion under management as of March 31, TRS is the fifth-
largest public pension plan in the U.S.
When Harris joined in 2007, the teachers fund wanted
someone who could boost returns without making risky bets that could
jeopardize the pensions of its 1.3 million public school teachers and
state university employees. "It's a plan I really care about," says
Harris, who's now 54. "It's my home state, a place I love."
Double Squeeze
Pension funds across the U.S. are facing an
unprecedented double squeeze: Baby boomers entering retirement are
placing growing demands on resources, while investment returns during
the past decade have dropped. Nationwide, public pensions faced more
than $4 trillion in unfunded liabilities as of October, according to
Joshua Rauh of Northwestern University.
At TRS, Harris is reacting by ramping up stakes in so-
called alternative assets ranging from private equity to real estate to
hedge funds. The Texas fund had about a third of its money in these
investments at the end of March -- more than any of the 10 largest
public pension funds, according to London researcher Preqin Ltd. The
California Public Employees' Retirement System has 25 percent of its
$237.6 billion of assets in such investments.
Bridgewater Stake
Harris, a devout Christian with a taste for Texas
barbecue, is also forming partnerships with Wall Street firms. He has
pledged $3 billion each to two private-equity joint ventures, with
Apollo Global Management LLC and KKR & Co. He'll be investing in
individual deals with them rather than solely placing money in their
funds, as other pension plans do. And in February, the Texas fund bought
a 2.5 percent private- equity stake in Bridgewater, Harris's former
employer, for $250 million.
The moves are controversial. "Are they in the business
of managing employee pensions or are they in the business of running
hedge funds on Wall Street?" says Edward Siedle, a former Securities and
Exchange Commission attorney who's now in the private sector
investigating pension fraud. "When you look at public pension
partnerships with Wall Street, generally they end up bad for the public
pensions and good for Wall Street."
Returns Improve
Harris, who recused himself from decision making on
the Bridgewater investment, says the hedge fund has consistently made
high returns and is an attractive investment.
Why Correlations Are Unreliable Risk Indicators
I just finished reading Maneet Ahuja’s new book, The Alpha Masters: Unlocking the Genius of the World’s Top Hedge Funds.
It’s a great book, packed with investing insight. I have no idea how
she got all these guys to talk on the record: Ray Dalio, Tim Wong,
Pierre Lagrange, John Paulson, Mark Lasry, Sonia Gardner, David Tepper,
Bill Ackman, Daniel Loeb, James Chanos and Boaz Weinstein, plus an
introduction by Mohamed El-Erian and an afterword by Myron Scholes.
Unlike some profiles that focus on lifestyles or dramatic events, these concentrate on how the subject built a world-class hedge fund and how he or she invests. These topics are not as closely connected as you might think. You obviously need to be a great investor to found a hedge fund that succeeds in the long run, but it’s far from the only requirement. The book is fun to read and contains important advice on almost every page.
I’m not going to review the book here. Instead I want to expand on a great point made by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. “To create the proper balance and diversification is even more important than any particular bets, which is the opposite of how most investors operate.”
He gives a simple example of an investor with 15 different uncorrelated bets, each with an expected return of 3% and a standard deviation of return of 10%. If you combine two bets, your standard deviation falls 29% to 7.1%. If you take all 15 bets, your standard deviation falls to 2.6% (the book inexplicably claims the reduction from the second bet is 15% and that 15 bets reduces your risk 80%, in fact that takes 25 bets). This is basic statistics, with equal volatility uncorrelated bets the standard deviation declines with the square root of the number of bets.
Then Dalio makes a less familiar point. “The most important rule is not to compare the correlations against each other in a quantitative sense, but according to their drivers.”
One problem with using correlations in risk analysis is you may misestimate them; things you think are uncorrelated may not be. A common way to misestimate is to assume correlations from the recent past will continue into the future. But it is possible to form moderately reliable correlation estimates by combining careful study of history with fundamental analysis. I believe portfolios constructed from these estimates can deliver long-term superior performance.
There is a more subtle problem, one that can hurt you even if your estimates are perfect. Suppose Dalio’s bets above are coin flips, heads you win 13%, tails you lose 7%. These bets have the required 3% expected return and 10% standard deviation of return. If you make one bet, there is a 50% chance you will lose money. If you make 15 bets, you might think you reduce your probability of losing money by the square root of 15, to 13%. If you think that, you’re wrong. Correlation tells you what happens to your standard deviation, which is not necessarily what happens to your risk.
The key problem is correlation is only a pairwise concept. Since the bets are uncorrelated, we know that if we pick any two, the chance is 1 in 4 that both will lose 7%, 1 in 4 that both will make 13%, and 1 in 2 that one will lose and one will win. Knowing that all the pairwise bets are uncorrelated tells us very little about how 15 bets will turn out. That is what Dalio means by understanding the drivers.
This next part gets a bit mathematical, but it’s worth following because it’s so important. Suppose there are two possibilities: the economy will do well and nine of the 15 bets will pay off, or the economy will do badly and only five of the 15 bets will pay off. The probability of a good economy is 5/8, and the probability of a bad economy is 3/8.
The expected number of bets that win is (5/8)*9 + (3/8)*5 = 60/8 = 7.5, so there is the required 50% chance for each bet to win. Suppose we are told that one bet paid off. This increases the probability that we are in the good state from 5/8 to 3/4, by Bayes Rule. If we are in the good state, the probability is 8/14 that any given other bet will win. If we are in the bad state, the probability is 4/14. The unconditional chance that any given other bet will win is (3/4)*8/14 + (1/4)*4/14 = 28/56 = 1/2. This is all “uncorrelated” means: that the chance of any bet winning is the same whatever I learn about the outcome of any other bet.
If this is the situation, the chance of losing money making all 15 bets is 37.5%, almost three times the 13% naïve calculation that was done above. The problem is that although there were 15 uncorrelated bets, there was a single driver (whether the economy was good or bad).
This may seem like a technicality that is not important for real investing. Nothing could be farther from the truth. It is easy to find uncorrelated bets, thousands of them. Take any stock, for example, and hedge it with its industry index. The result will be close to uncorrelated with some other stock hedged with its industry index. But a diversified portfolio of 100 stocks hedged with their respective industry indices will not have 10% of the risk of any single position. It may have 10% of the standard deviation, but the probability of a tail event may be almost as great as holding a single position.
If there are too many numbers in that explanation, here is a less quantitative example. Suppose you wanted to bet on the percent of the vote the winning candidate got in the 2010 US congressional election. The median was 63%. If I told you the incumbent was a Republican, the median is still about 63%, the incumbent’s party is uncorrelated with your bet. If I told you the winning candidate was a Democrat, the median is still about 63%. The winning candidate’s party is also uncorrelated. But if I told you the incumbent was a Republican and the winning candidate was a Democrat, the median drops to 53% (there were only three such races), and you will lose all the time if you bet the winning candidate will get over 63% of the vote. Two pieces of information are individually uncorrelated with the bet, but when combined they have a high correlation with the bet.
Here is one final example that illustrates another good way to think about correlation. Suppose Dalio’s bets are all bonds that cost $100 and are supposed to pay $1 per quarter interest and $101 at maturity in one year. The bonds will all make their three quarterly interest payments but may default if the issuer cannot refinance at maturity. The probability of that is 1/101 for each bond, and the defaults are uncorrelated.
The expected return from each bond is (100/101)*$4 - (1/101)*$97 = $303/101 = $3, as required. The standard deviation is $10. Because the bonds are uncorrelated, the probability of any two defaulting is one in 101 squared, or 1/10,201. This leads some people to assume the probability of more than two bonds defaulting must be negligible.
Imagine I have a hat with 10,201 slips of paper in it. Some of the papers have the names of bonds written on them. I’m going to draw one slip to see which bonds default. Since I know each bond has 1/101 chance of default, each bond must be on 101 different slips of paper. Since I know the defaults are uncorrelated, each pair of bonds must be on exactly one slip of paper. But that’s all I know. There are many ways to write the bond’s names on papers to satisfy these conditions.
For example, I could write all 15 bonds on one piece of paper, then each bond alone on 100 other pieces of paper each, leaving 8,700 blank slips. That makes the chance that all 15 bonds default 1 in 10,201. That’s low, but if you take risks like this every day, sooner or later one will catch up with you. When it does, someone half-trained in mathematics will say the probability of the event was 1 in 101 to the 15th power, something that should never have happened in the history of the universe. They will be wrong because they do not understand correlation. Uncorrelated bets are no guarantee that you will not have extreme tail events. As in the first example, you have 15 uncorrelated events, but only one driver.
Another thing I can do is write three bonds on 35 pieces of paper. Each individual bond is on seven of these slips, each time with a different pair of other bonds. Then I write each bond by itself on 94 slips of paper and leave 8,756 blank slips. Now the probability of more than two defaults is 35/10,201, or 0.3%. It’s low, but it’s not negligible.
This raises the question of how many drivers there are in the world, on which you can bet enough money to be meaningful to a portfolio. I don’t know the answer, but I’d guess it’s something like Dalio’s 15. Call it five that are available to any investor in low-cost, simple vehicles, five that are for professionals, and five that are cutting-edge hedge fund strategies. In fact, one important economic purpose of hedge funds is to seek out new drivers, which eventually become well-understood and liquid enough to be offered in cheaper form to less sophisticated investors, and eventually to be incorporated in index funds for everyone at minimal cost.
Fifteen drivers doesn’t mean you only make 15 investments. Finding uncorrelated bets that depend on the same driver still reduces your risk, just not all the way to zero, and perhaps not your extreme tail risk at all. Correlation is a powerful tool for building portfolios, but never confuse a tool with a driver.
Unlike some profiles that focus on lifestyles or dramatic events, these concentrate on how the subject built a world-class hedge fund and how he or she invests. These topics are not as closely connected as you might think. You obviously need to be a great investor to found a hedge fund that succeeds in the long run, but it’s far from the only requirement. The book is fun to read and contains important advice on almost every page.
I’m not going to review the book here. Instead I want to expand on a great point made by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. “To create the proper balance and diversification is even more important than any particular bets, which is the opposite of how most investors operate.”
He gives a simple example of an investor with 15 different uncorrelated bets, each with an expected return of 3% and a standard deviation of return of 10%. If you combine two bets, your standard deviation falls 29% to 7.1%. If you take all 15 bets, your standard deviation falls to 2.6% (the book inexplicably claims the reduction from the second bet is 15% and that 15 bets reduces your risk 80%, in fact that takes 25 bets). This is basic statistics, with equal volatility uncorrelated bets the standard deviation declines with the square root of the number of bets.
Then Dalio makes a less familiar point. “The most important rule is not to compare the correlations against each other in a quantitative sense, but according to their drivers.”
One problem with using correlations in risk analysis is you may misestimate them; things you think are uncorrelated may not be. A common way to misestimate is to assume correlations from the recent past will continue into the future. But it is possible to form moderately reliable correlation estimates by combining careful study of history with fundamental analysis. I believe portfolios constructed from these estimates can deliver long-term superior performance.
There is a more subtle problem, one that can hurt you even if your estimates are perfect. Suppose Dalio’s bets above are coin flips, heads you win 13%, tails you lose 7%. These bets have the required 3% expected return and 10% standard deviation of return. If you make one bet, there is a 50% chance you will lose money. If you make 15 bets, you might think you reduce your probability of losing money by the square root of 15, to 13%. If you think that, you’re wrong. Correlation tells you what happens to your standard deviation, which is not necessarily what happens to your risk.
The key problem is correlation is only a pairwise concept. Since the bets are uncorrelated, we know that if we pick any two, the chance is 1 in 4 that both will lose 7%, 1 in 4 that both will make 13%, and 1 in 2 that one will lose and one will win. Knowing that all the pairwise bets are uncorrelated tells us very little about how 15 bets will turn out. That is what Dalio means by understanding the drivers.
This next part gets a bit mathematical, but it’s worth following because it’s so important. Suppose there are two possibilities: the economy will do well and nine of the 15 bets will pay off, or the economy will do badly and only five of the 15 bets will pay off. The probability of a good economy is 5/8, and the probability of a bad economy is 3/8.
The expected number of bets that win is (5/8)*9 + (3/8)*5 = 60/8 = 7.5, so there is the required 50% chance for each bet to win. Suppose we are told that one bet paid off. This increases the probability that we are in the good state from 5/8 to 3/4, by Bayes Rule. If we are in the good state, the probability is 8/14 that any given other bet will win. If we are in the bad state, the probability is 4/14. The unconditional chance that any given other bet will win is (3/4)*8/14 + (1/4)*4/14 = 28/56 = 1/2. This is all “uncorrelated” means: that the chance of any bet winning is the same whatever I learn about the outcome of any other bet.
If this is the situation, the chance of losing money making all 15 bets is 37.5%, almost three times the 13% naïve calculation that was done above. The problem is that although there were 15 uncorrelated bets, there was a single driver (whether the economy was good or bad).
This may seem like a technicality that is not important for real investing. Nothing could be farther from the truth. It is easy to find uncorrelated bets, thousands of them. Take any stock, for example, and hedge it with its industry index. The result will be close to uncorrelated with some other stock hedged with its industry index. But a diversified portfolio of 100 stocks hedged with their respective industry indices will not have 10% of the risk of any single position. It may have 10% of the standard deviation, but the probability of a tail event may be almost as great as holding a single position.
If there are too many numbers in that explanation, here is a less quantitative example. Suppose you wanted to bet on the percent of the vote the winning candidate got in the 2010 US congressional election. The median was 63%. If I told you the incumbent was a Republican, the median is still about 63%, the incumbent’s party is uncorrelated with your bet. If I told you the winning candidate was a Democrat, the median is still about 63%. The winning candidate’s party is also uncorrelated. But if I told you the incumbent was a Republican and the winning candidate was a Democrat, the median drops to 53% (there were only three such races), and you will lose all the time if you bet the winning candidate will get over 63% of the vote. Two pieces of information are individually uncorrelated with the bet, but when combined they have a high correlation with the bet.
Here is one final example that illustrates another good way to think about correlation. Suppose Dalio’s bets are all bonds that cost $100 and are supposed to pay $1 per quarter interest and $101 at maturity in one year. The bonds will all make their three quarterly interest payments but may default if the issuer cannot refinance at maturity. The probability of that is 1/101 for each bond, and the defaults are uncorrelated.
The expected return from each bond is (100/101)*$4 - (1/101)*$97 = $303/101 = $3, as required. The standard deviation is $10. Because the bonds are uncorrelated, the probability of any two defaulting is one in 101 squared, or 1/10,201. This leads some people to assume the probability of more than two bonds defaulting must be negligible.
Imagine I have a hat with 10,201 slips of paper in it. Some of the papers have the names of bonds written on them. I’m going to draw one slip to see which bonds default. Since I know each bond has 1/101 chance of default, each bond must be on 101 different slips of paper. Since I know the defaults are uncorrelated, each pair of bonds must be on exactly one slip of paper. But that’s all I know. There are many ways to write the bond’s names on papers to satisfy these conditions.
For example, I could write all 15 bonds on one piece of paper, then each bond alone on 100 other pieces of paper each, leaving 8,700 blank slips. That makes the chance that all 15 bonds default 1 in 10,201. That’s low, but if you take risks like this every day, sooner or later one will catch up with you. When it does, someone half-trained in mathematics will say the probability of the event was 1 in 101 to the 15th power, something that should never have happened in the history of the universe. They will be wrong because they do not understand correlation. Uncorrelated bets are no guarantee that you will not have extreme tail events. As in the first example, you have 15 uncorrelated events, but only one driver.
Another thing I can do is write three bonds on 35 pieces of paper. Each individual bond is on seven of these slips, each time with a different pair of other bonds. Then I write each bond by itself on 94 slips of paper and leave 8,756 blank slips. Now the probability of more than two defaults is 35/10,201, or 0.3%. It’s low, but it’s not negligible.
This raises the question of how many drivers there are in the world, on which you can bet enough money to be meaningful to a portfolio. I don’t know the answer, but I’d guess it’s something like Dalio’s 15. Call it five that are available to any investor in low-cost, simple vehicles, five that are for professionals, and five that are cutting-edge hedge fund strategies. In fact, one important economic purpose of hedge funds is to seek out new drivers, which eventually become well-understood and liquid enough to be offered in cheaper form to less sophisticated investors, and eventually to be incorporated in index funds for everyone at minimal cost.
Fifteen drivers doesn’t mean you only make 15 investments. Finding uncorrelated bets that depend on the same driver still reduces your risk, just not all the way to zero, and perhaps not your extreme tail risk at all. Correlation is a powerful tool for building portfolios, but never confuse a tool with a driver.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Alpha Masters: Great Book, Better Insight Into the Lives of the Most Powerful Money
In Ray Dalio's famous Principles, a book which all employees are
required to read and live by, he writes, "Above all else, I want you to
think for yourself - to decide 1) what you want, 2) what is true, and 3)
what to do about it. I want you to do that in a clear-headed thoughtful
way, so that you get what you want." Ray Dalio is the infamous founder
of Bridgewater Associates, the largest global macro hedge fund, with
$120 billion in assets under management. But more so, he is striving to
find truth and personally evolve. His success is what makes him famous,
but it is his spirituality that makes him successful.
Mr. Dalio is one of the nine case studies of the new book, The Alpha Masters: Unlocking the Genius of the World's Top Hedge Funds
,
by Maneet Ahuja, and he is one of the more interesting. Now in his
60's, he has stepped down as Co-CEO but remains one of three Co-CIO's of
the company. The investing strategy that has been successful for
Bridgewater since the 1990's is still in place and has driven the firm
to be the largest hedge fund in the world. Bridgewater has a portfolio
of alpha-generating positions, normally around 15 or so. Bridgewater is
able to tailor risk to each client by investing a portion of the assets
in this alpha portfolio, and then the rest in a passive, index portfolio
that only has beta. Thus, each investor can achieve optimum levels of
risk and still have exposure to alpha.
Mr. Dalio is one of the nine case studies of the new book, The Alpha Masters: Unlocking the Genius of the World's Top Hedge Funds
Many have called Dalio the Steve Jobs of the investing world. As a
huge proponent of mediation, Dalio says that twenty minutes of
meditation can make up for hours of lost sleep. Further with his
spiritual nature, he believes in the search for truth. As he writes in
Principles, "There is nothing to fear from the truth. Being truthful is
essential to being an independent thinker and obtaining a greater
understanding of what is right."
If Dalio were to give you one piece of advice, it would be to go after what you want. In the book, he tells the story of trying to hire an architect to build his home. When he told the architect what he wanted, the architect replied that he had always wanted to design something like that, but never did. The architect showed Dalio a book of designs from another architect who had done those types of designs before and would use that as inspiration. Dalio proceeded to call the other architect and hire him to design his home. Dalio first asked this new architect how he started designing these types of structures, and the architect replied "I built doghouses to begin. But I really wanted to build this kind of stuff." The point of this story is to tell people that to get anywhere, you need to start. Start small, go after what you want, work hard, learn from mistakes, and success will follow.
If Dalio were to give you one piece of advice, it would be to go after what you want. In the book, he tells the story of trying to hire an architect to build his home. When he told the architect what he wanted, the architect replied that he had always wanted to design something like that, but never did. The architect showed Dalio a book of designs from another architect who had done those types of designs before and would use that as inspiration. Dalio proceeded to call the other architect and hire him to design his home. Dalio first asked this new architect how he started designing these types of structures, and the architect replied "I built doghouses to begin. But I really wanted to build this kind of stuff." The point of this story is to tell people that to get anywhere, you need to start. Start small, go after what you want, work hard, learn from mistakes, and success will follow.
Monday, May 28, 2012
Insight: U.S. hedge funds find ways to trade euro misery
BOSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two decades ago, George Soros rose to
fame and fortune on his now-historic trade in which he took on the Bank
of England and shrewdly wagered on a devaluation of the British pound.
But it's unlikely the current European monetary crisis and worries about Greece's potential exit from the euro zone will give rise to an investing legend like Soros, who made $1 billion in 1992 by betting on a decline in the price of the pound.
Instead, there are a multitude of strategies to play Europe's troubles, and many different participants, according to U.S. hedge fund managers.
"There is not room for one player to have such impact," said John Brynjolfsson, whose California-based Armored Wolf hedge fund has been betting against the euro for quite some time. "Financial markets are so much bigger today."
A spokesman for Soros, who last year converted his Soros Fund Management to a family office and stopped managing money for outside investors, could not be reached for comment.
Brynjolfsson and several other U.S. money managers who are trying to profit from Europe's misery say they expect the current crisis to produce a lot of winners.
So far this year, the euro is down 3.3 percent against the U.S. dollar.
U.S. money managers say it's hard to swing for the fences the way Soros did because institutional investors are far more squeamish about having too much money riding on any single trade. There is also heightened sensitivity from pensions and endowments to taking an investment strategy that might spark political outrage from European leaders.
Another thing working against the rise of a new Soros is that trading the euro zone, or even the fallout from a Greek exit, is a much more complicated than betting against a single currency.
Money managers are playing the euro zone crisis by trading currencies, wagering on the direction of bank stocks or using derivatives like credit default swaps to bet on potential corporate and bank failures. Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn recently said he is bullish on gold and gold miners, in part because of concern about the fallout from a euro zone meltdown.
Some managers are even going both short and long on different European sovereign debt, depending on their views of the financial stability of different countries.
Adam Fisher, manager of the $320 million Commonwealth Opportunity Capital hedge fund, noted that Soros faced a "single country, not 17 different countries, one decision maker, not 17."
Fisher's fund, which has more than 80 percent of its money invested in Europe, is taking a somewhat contrarian position by owning the European sovereign debt of Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain.
Hedge fund managers point out that given the up-and-down nature of the euro zone crisis, most hedge funds have been in and out of trades or forced to adjust positions depending on the changing political winds.
Earlier this year, for instance, it looked like concern about Greece exiting the euro had passed. But with the recent results of the Greek election at odds with the austerity measures demanded by its currency partners, the risk of a Greek departure from the euro zone has risen dramatically.
Recently, Fisher said his Los Angeles-based fund had reduced the size of some of its more bullish sovereign debt trades because he believes there will be "violent" market swings this summer.
"It is going to be incredibly difficult to manage risk through that environment," said Fisher, whose fund was up 8.8 percent through April. "I don't think hedging will do anything. The way you hedge, is you sell. You don't subtract risk by adding risk."
Brynjolfsson, a former top portfolio manager for bond mutual fund firm Pacific Investment Management Co, is betting on Greece exiting the euro. He said it will be hard for European leaders to take the necessary steps to appease the Greek government without infuriating politicians in other euro zone countries.
"As the wheels began falling off the bus, we adjusted to have a short bias and that has worked out," said Brynjolfsson, whose $750 million hedge fund is up 2 percent this year, largely on its short bet against the euro.
Axel Merk, president and chief executive officer of Merk Investments, an investment advisory firm that specializes in currencies, said the growing problems with Greece and the euro zone led him recently to dump all the euros in his $517 million Merk Hard Currency Fund, which is up 2.29 percent for the year.
Merk now favors the Singapore dollar, which has climbed 1.34 percent since January.
Ray Dalio's $120 billion Bridgewater Associates gained 23 percent in 2011 in part because of profits made from a series of European bets, said a person familiar with the Westport, Conn.-based fund who declined to discuss specifics of the strategy. In a recent interview with Barron's, Dalio said European banks "are now over-leveraged and can't expand their balance sheets" and European nations "don't have enough buyers of their debt."
Dalio may be the U.S. money manager who comes closest to rivaling the Soros of two decades ago. His hedge fund is the industry's largest and he widely regarded as one of the most successful managers.
Among the ways funds are playing the European turmoil, some are betting against the fortunes of Spanish and Italian banks instead of simply focusing on sovereign debt.
John Paulson, among others, bets against European sovereign debt as way to hedge the overall portfolio of his Paulson & Co hedge fund firm.
Daniel Loeb's Third Point fund put on a long position in Portuguese sovereign bonds in the first quarter because the New York-based manager believed the nation is in better shape than others in the euro zone.
"Portugal's debt profile is more consistent with Italy's than Greece's, its banks are substantially healthier than Spain's, and its government has enacted more aggressive labor reforms and is more stable than regimes in both countries," Loeb wrote in a May 16 investors' letter seen by Reuters.
If nothing else, the European crisis is forcing managers to keep coming up with new strategies to trade. One might say it's almost become an incubator for hedge fund managers to stretch their investment acumen.
Merk said he might look again at Europe if the political and financial situation gets more clarity. But he would likely do it a bit differently.
"If there is clarity in the process again, then we will certainly look at Europe again," he said. "But not through Greek debt, but through German bills."
(Reporting By Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Katya Wachtel; edited by Matthew Goldstein, Jennifer Ablan, Martin Howell)
But it's unlikely the current European monetary crisis and worries about Greece's potential exit from the euro zone will give rise to an investing legend like Soros, who made $1 billion in 1992 by betting on a decline in the price of the pound.
Instead, there are a multitude of strategies to play Europe's troubles, and many different participants, according to U.S. hedge fund managers.
"There is not room for one player to have such impact," said John Brynjolfsson, whose California-based Armored Wolf hedge fund has been betting against the euro for quite some time. "Financial markets are so much bigger today."
A spokesman for Soros, who last year converted his Soros Fund Management to a family office and stopped managing money for outside investors, could not be reached for comment.
Brynjolfsson and several other U.S. money managers who are trying to profit from Europe's misery say they expect the current crisis to produce a lot of winners.
So far this year, the euro is down 3.3 percent against the U.S. dollar.
U.S. money managers say it's hard to swing for the fences the way Soros did because institutional investors are far more squeamish about having too much money riding on any single trade. There is also heightened sensitivity from pensions and endowments to taking an investment strategy that might spark political outrage from European leaders.
Another thing working against the rise of a new Soros is that trading the euro zone, or even the fallout from a Greek exit, is a much more complicated than betting against a single currency.
Money managers are playing the euro zone crisis by trading currencies, wagering on the direction of bank stocks or using derivatives like credit default swaps to bet on potential corporate and bank failures. Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn recently said he is bullish on gold and gold miners, in part because of concern about the fallout from a euro zone meltdown.
Some managers are even going both short and long on different European sovereign debt, depending on their views of the financial stability of different countries.
Adam Fisher, manager of the $320 million Commonwealth Opportunity Capital hedge fund, noted that Soros faced a "single country, not 17 different countries, one decision maker, not 17."
Fisher's fund, which has more than 80 percent of its money invested in Europe, is taking a somewhat contrarian position by owning the European sovereign debt of Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain.
Hedge fund managers point out that given the up-and-down nature of the euro zone crisis, most hedge funds have been in and out of trades or forced to adjust positions depending on the changing political winds.
Earlier this year, for instance, it looked like concern about Greece exiting the euro had passed. But with the recent results of the Greek election at odds with the austerity measures demanded by its currency partners, the risk of a Greek departure from the euro zone has risen dramatically.
Recently, Fisher said his Los Angeles-based fund had reduced the size of some of its more bullish sovereign debt trades because he believes there will be "violent" market swings this summer.
"It is going to be incredibly difficult to manage risk through that environment," said Fisher, whose fund was up 8.8 percent through April. "I don't think hedging will do anything. The way you hedge, is you sell. You don't subtract risk by adding risk."
Brynjolfsson, a former top portfolio manager for bond mutual fund firm Pacific Investment Management Co, is betting on Greece exiting the euro. He said it will be hard for European leaders to take the necessary steps to appease the Greek government without infuriating politicians in other euro zone countries.
"As the wheels began falling off the bus, we adjusted to have a short bias and that has worked out," said Brynjolfsson, whose $750 million hedge fund is up 2 percent this year, largely on its short bet against the euro.
Axel Merk, president and chief executive officer of Merk Investments, an investment advisory firm that specializes in currencies, said the growing problems with Greece and the euro zone led him recently to dump all the euros in his $517 million Merk Hard Currency Fund, which is up 2.29 percent for the year.
Merk now favors the Singapore dollar, which has climbed 1.34 percent since January.
Ray Dalio's $120 billion Bridgewater Associates gained 23 percent in 2011 in part because of profits made from a series of European bets, said a person familiar with the Westport, Conn.-based fund who declined to discuss specifics of the strategy. In a recent interview with Barron's, Dalio said European banks "are now over-leveraged and can't expand their balance sheets" and European nations "don't have enough buyers of their debt."
Dalio may be the U.S. money manager who comes closest to rivaling the Soros of two decades ago. His hedge fund is the industry's largest and he widely regarded as one of the most successful managers.
Among the ways funds are playing the European turmoil, some are betting against the fortunes of Spanish and Italian banks instead of simply focusing on sovereign debt.
John Paulson, among others, bets against European sovereign debt as way to hedge the overall portfolio of his Paulson & Co hedge fund firm.
Daniel Loeb's Third Point fund put on a long position in Portuguese sovereign bonds in the first quarter because the New York-based manager believed the nation is in better shape than others in the euro zone.
"Portugal's debt profile is more consistent with Italy's than Greece's, its banks are substantially healthier than Spain's, and its government has enacted more aggressive labor reforms and is more stable than regimes in both countries," Loeb wrote in a May 16 investors' letter seen by Reuters.
If nothing else, the European crisis is forcing managers to keep coming up with new strategies to trade. One might say it's almost become an incubator for hedge fund managers to stretch their investment acumen.
Merk said he might look again at Europe if the political and financial situation gets more clarity. But he would likely do it a bit differently.
"If there is clarity in the process again, then we will certainly look at Europe again," he said. "But not through Greek debt, but through German bills."
(Reporting By Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Katya Wachtel; edited by Matthew Goldstein, Jennifer Ablan, Martin Howell)
Friday, May 25, 2012
Ray Dalio Bets on Telecom and Miner in Top First-Quarter Picks
Ray Dalio
's Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest and
best-performing hedge fund and a macro firm, added 71 new stocks
to its portfolio in the first quarter of 2012. The largest of the
firm's new buys are: Verizon Communications (
VZ
), Qualcomm Inc. (
QCOM
), AT&T (
T
), Royal Bank Canada (
RY
) and Newmont Mining (
NEM
).
The biggest trend in Dalio's top stock picks is their connection to 4G and smart phone growth in telecommunications, except for the fifth largest, a miner.
Verizon Communications ( VZ )
Bridgewater bought 451,400 shares of Verizon at an average price of $39.
Verizon Communications, formed by the merger of Bell Atlantic and GTE, is one of the world's providers of high-growth communications services. Verizon Comm has a market cap of $116.72 billion; its shares were traded at around $40.97 with a P/E ratio of 18.4 and P/S ratio of 1.1. The dividend yield of Verizon Comm stocks is 4.9%. Verizon Comm had an annual average earnings growth of 2.3% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Verizon Comm the business predictability rank of 4-star .
In the first quarter, Verizon reported 4.6% quarter over quarter revenue growth and 15.7% earnings per share growth, driven by strong demand for its FiOS services and strategic services. The company added 193,000 net new FiOS Internet connections and 180,000 net new FiOS video connections in the quarter. Revenues grew year over year across all strategic areas: wireless services, wireless data, FiOS and strategic services.
Qualcomm Inc. ( QCOM )
Bridgewater bought 226,465 of new holding Qualcomm Inc. at an average of $62 per share.
Qualcomm Inc. develops and delivers innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the company's CDMA digital technology. Qualcomm Inc has a market cap of $104.63 billion; its shares were traded at around $59.38 with a P/E ratio of 20.2 and P/S ratio of 7. The dividend yield of Qualcomm Inc stocks is 1.4%. Qualcomm Inc. had an annual average earnings growth of 18.2% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Qualcomm Inc. the business predictability rank of 3.5-star .
Qualcomm in its second quarter ended March 25, 2012, reported record quarterly revenue of $4.9 billion, up 28% year over year, and record earnings per share of $1.28, up 123% year over year. The record results were driven by demand for 3G and 4G-enable devices. In the December quarter, estimated 3G and 4G device shipments were approximately 239 to 243 million units, at an average price of approximately $211 to $217 per unit, compared to 191 million to 195 million the prior quarter. Device sales were up 29% year over year and 25% sequentially.
AT&T ( T )
Bridgewater bought 460,100 shares of AT&T at an average price of $31.
AT&T Inc. is a premier communications holding company. AT&T Inc. has a market cap of $199.17 billion; its shares were traded at around $33.28 with a P/E ratio of 15.1 and P/S ratio of 1.6. The dividend yield of AT&T Inc. stocks is 5.2%. AT&T Inc. had an annual average earnings growth of 3.3% over the past 10 years.
In AT&T's first quarter, the company reported diluted EPS of $0.60 compared to $0.57 in the prior-year period, and revenues increased 1.8% to $31.8 billion, compared to the prior-year period. Wireless, wireline, data and managed services accounted for 78% of AT%T's total revenue in the quarter, and grew 6.2%, compared to year-ago quarter. The largest increase was seen in consumer U-verse (TV and high speed internet) revenues, which increased 38.2%, followed by wireless data revenues which grew 19.9% and strategic business services revenues which grew 19%.
AT&T also sold a first-quarter record 5.5 million smartphones. Approximately 30 percent of its postpaid smartphone subscribers were on 4G-capable devices.
Royal Bank Canada ( RY )
Bridgewater bought 248,000 shares of Royal Bank of Canada ( RY ) at an average of $55.
Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank and operates under the master brand name of RBC. Royal Bank of Canada has a market cap of $77.61 billion; its shares were traded at around $52.36 with a P/E ratio of 12.3 and P/S ratio of 2.2. The dividend yield of Royal Bank of Canada stocks is 4.2%. Royal Bank of Canada had an annual average earnings growth of 15.1% over the past 10 years.
In the bank's first quarter ended Jan. 31, 2012, it reported almost $1.9 billion earnings, down 6% from the prior-year quarter, and return on common equity of 20%, down from 24.4% in the prior-year quarter. The bank also announced a 6% increase in its quarterly dividend on March 1, 2012. Net income in its Canadian Banking sector reported record net income of $994 million, increased 5%, driven by growth in home equity products, personal and business deposits and business loans.
Dalio's Royal Bank Canada investment also has a tie to the mobile industry. It is one of the six largest lenders in Canada to agree to voluntary guidelines to develop mobile payments in Canada that will allow Canadians to pay for things with their mobile devices. "While voluntary, the financial institutions that developed the guidelines are committed to these principles in the mobile market, and these guidelines are intended to create a path to help all market participants move forward in developing mobile payment solutions," the Canadian Bankers Association said in a statement.
Newmont Mining ( NEM )
Bridgewater bought 279,106 shares of Newmont Mining ( NEM ) at an average of $59. The stock is down 27.5% year to open at $43.37 on Wednesday, near its 52-week low of $43.23.
Newmont Mining Corp., the largest gold producer in the U.S., is engaged in the production of gold, the exploration for gold and the acquisition and development of gold properties worldwide. Newmont Mining has a market cap of $22.24 billion; its shares were traded at around $43.51 with a P/E ratio of 10.1 and P/S ratio of 2.2. The dividend yield of Newmont Mining stocks is 3.1%. Newmont Mining had an annual average earnings growth of 12.7% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Newmont Mining the business predictability rank of 2.5-star .
Newmont's stock price began declining in February when it announced a fourth-quarter loss of $1.03 billion due to a $1.61 billion writedown of its Hope Bay project in Canada. Net income the previous year was $812 million. The same day, it announced a 6% increase in its gold reserves to a record 98.8 million ounces and a record 9.7 billion pounds of copper in 2011.
In Newmont's first quarter, it reported net income of $517 million, compared with $513 million the prior-year quarter. Consolidated revenue increased 9% to $2.7 billion, and gold operating margin expanded 29%, slightly more than the 22% increase in the average price of gold.
Find Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates equity portfolio here. Also check out the Undervalued Stocks, Top Growth Companies and High Yield stocks of Ray Dalio.About GuruFocus: GuruFocus.com tracks the stocks picks and portfolio holdings of the world's best investors. This value investing site offers stock screeners and valuation tools. And publishes daily articles tracking the latest moves of the world's best investors. GuruFocus also provides promising stock ideas in 3 monthly newsletters sent to Premium Members .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.
The biggest trend in Dalio's top stock picks is their connection to 4G and smart phone growth in telecommunications, except for the fifth largest, a miner.
Verizon Communications ( VZ )
Bridgewater bought 451,400 shares of Verizon at an average price of $39.
Verizon Communications, formed by the merger of Bell Atlantic and GTE, is one of the world's providers of high-growth communications services. Verizon Comm has a market cap of $116.72 billion; its shares were traded at around $40.97 with a P/E ratio of 18.4 and P/S ratio of 1.1. The dividend yield of Verizon Comm stocks is 4.9%. Verizon Comm had an annual average earnings growth of 2.3% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Verizon Comm the business predictability rank of 4-star .
In the first quarter, Verizon reported 4.6% quarter over quarter revenue growth and 15.7% earnings per share growth, driven by strong demand for its FiOS services and strategic services. The company added 193,000 net new FiOS Internet connections and 180,000 net new FiOS video connections in the quarter. Revenues grew year over year across all strategic areas: wireless services, wireless data, FiOS and strategic services.
Qualcomm Inc. ( QCOM )
Bridgewater bought 226,465 of new holding Qualcomm Inc. at an average of $62 per share.
Qualcomm Inc. develops and delivers innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the company's CDMA digital technology. Qualcomm Inc has a market cap of $104.63 billion; its shares were traded at around $59.38 with a P/E ratio of 20.2 and P/S ratio of 7. The dividend yield of Qualcomm Inc stocks is 1.4%. Qualcomm Inc. had an annual average earnings growth of 18.2% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Qualcomm Inc. the business predictability rank of 3.5-star .
Qualcomm in its second quarter ended March 25, 2012, reported record quarterly revenue of $4.9 billion, up 28% year over year, and record earnings per share of $1.28, up 123% year over year. The record results were driven by demand for 3G and 4G-enable devices. In the December quarter, estimated 3G and 4G device shipments were approximately 239 to 243 million units, at an average price of approximately $211 to $217 per unit, compared to 191 million to 195 million the prior quarter. Device sales were up 29% year over year and 25% sequentially.
AT&T ( T )
Bridgewater bought 460,100 shares of AT&T at an average price of $31.
AT&T Inc. is a premier communications holding company. AT&T Inc. has a market cap of $199.17 billion; its shares were traded at around $33.28 with a P/E ratio of 15.1 and P/S ratio of 1.6. The dividend yield of AT&T Inc. stocks is 5.2%. AT&T Inc. had an annual average earnings growth of 3.3% over the past 10 years.
In AT&T's first quarter, the company reported diluted EPS of $0.60 compared to $0.57 in the prior-year period, and revenues increased 1.8% to $31.8 billion, compared to the prior-year period. Wireless, wireline, data and managed services accounted for 78% of AT%T's total revenue in the quarter, and grew 6.2%, compared to year-ago quarter. The largest increase was seen in consumer U-verse (TV and high speed internet) revenues, which increased 38.2%, followed by wireless data revenues which grew 19.9% and strategic business services revenues which grew 19%.
AT&T also sold a first-quarter record 5.5 million smartphones. Approximately 30 percent of its postpaid smartphone subscribers were on 4G-capable devices.
Royal Bank Canada ( RY )
Bridgewater bought 248,000 shares of Royal Bank of Canada ( RY ) at an average of $55.
Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank and operates under the master brand name of RBC. Royal Bank of Canada has a market cap of $77.61 billion; its shares were traded at around $52.36 with a P/E ratio of 12.3 and P/S ratio of 2.2. The dividend yield of Royal Bank of Canada stocks is 4.2%. Royal Bank of Canada had an annual average earnings growth of 15.1% over the past 10 years.
In the bank's first quarter ended Jan. 31, 2012, it reported almost $1.9 billion earnings, down 6% from the prior-year quarter, and return on common equity of 20%, down from 24.4% in the prior-year quarter. The bank also announced a 6% increase in its quarterly dividend on March 1, 2012. Net income in its Canadian Banking sector reported record net income of $994 million, increased 5%, driven by growth in home equity products, personal and business deposits and business loans.
Dalio's Royal Bank Canada investment also has a tie to the mobile industry. It is one of the six largest lenders in Canada to agree to voluntary guidelines to develop mobile payments in Canada that will allow Canadians to pay for things with their mobile devices. "While voluntary, the financial institutions that developed the guidelines are committed to these principles in the mobile market, and these guidelines are intended to create a path to help all market participants move forward in developing mobile payment solutions," the Canadian Bankers Association said in a statement.
Newmont Mining ( NEM )
Bridgewater bought 279,106 shares of Newmont Mining ( NEM ) at an average of $59. The stock is down 27.5% year to open at $43.37 on Wednesday, near its 52-week low of $43.23.
Newmont Mining Corp., the largest gold producer in the U.S., is engaged in the production of gold, the exploration for gold and the acquisition and development of gold properties worldwide. Newmont Mining has a market cap of $22.24 billion; its shares were traded at around $43.51 with a P/E ratio of 10.1 and P/S ratio of 2.2. The dividend yield of Newmont Mining stocks is 3.1%. Newmont Mining had an annual average earnings growth of 12.7% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Newmont Mining the business predictability rank of 2.5-star .
Newmont's stock price began declining in February when it announced a fourth-quarter loss of $1.03 billion due to a $1.61 billion writedown of its Hope Bay project in Canada. Net income the previous year was $812 million. The same day, it announced a 6% increase in its gold reserves to a record 98.8 million ounces and a record 9.7 billion pounds of copper in 2011.
In Newmont's first quarter, it reported net income of $517 million, compared with $513 million the prior-year quarter. Consolidated revenue increased 9% to $2.7 billion, and gold operating margin expanded 29%, slightly more than the 22% increase in the average price of gold.
Find Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates equity portfolio here. Also check out the Undervalued Stocks, Top Growth Companies and High Yield stocks of Ray Dalio.About GuruFocus: GuruFocus.com tracks the stocks picks and portfolio holdings of the world's best investors. This value investing site offers stock screeners and valuation tools. And publishes daily articles tracking the latest moves of the world's best investors. GuruFocus also provides promising stock ideas in 3 monthly newsletters sent to Premium Members .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.
Ray Dalio: Europe Today is Like Post-Revolutionary America
Ray Dalio heads the world’s largest hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, where has a stellar track record of outperformance. In a cover story Q&A in this week’s Barron’s, Dalio explains in an extremely clear manner why he believes the U.S. is currently undergoing what he terms a ‘beautiful deleveraging’ process, while Europe struggles under its ongoing debt crisis. On the latter, Dalio makes a fascinating comparison to America between 1776-1789:
In 1776, the colonies declared independence from Great Britain. We didn’t have a country. We had independent states that had a treaty with each other, called the Articles of Confederation, and it was similar to the Maastricht Treaty that created the European Union and the euro currency. The independent states had debt problems and they had tariffs with each other. It wasn’t until 13 years later, 1789, that those states started to form a central government, largely because of their debt problems. There was a constitutional convention, and we formed a country and we chose a president. We formed a treasury and imposed central taxation. That gave us the ability to produce revenue for the country and restructure our debts. There was the ability to have taxation and to issue bonds and to borrow. Europe does not have an ability to borrow. It doesn’t have central taxation, that’s material, and it doesn’t have a treasury. It is a collection of countries operating for their own individual needs.
Read the whole thing (this one’s free) for more of Dalio’s thinking, including his current investing outlook. He’s the sort of highly articulate broad macro investor from whom anyone can learn.
In 1776, the colonies declared independence from Great Britain. We didn’t have a country. We had independent states that had a treaty with each other, called the Articles of Confederation, and it was similar to the Maastricht Treaty that created the European Union and the euro currency. The independent states had debt problems and they had tariffs with each other. It wasn’t until 13 years later, 1789, that those states started to form a central government, largely because of their debt problems. There was a constitutional convention, and we formed a country and we chose a president. We formed a treasury and imposed central taxation. That gave us the ability to produce revenue for the country and restructure our debts. There was the ability to have taxation and to issue bonds and to borrow. Europe does not have an ability to borrow. It doesn’t have central taxation, that’s material, and it doesn’t have a treasury. It is a collection of countries operating for their own individual needs.
Read the whole thing (this one’s free) for more of Dalio’s thinking, including his current investing outlook. He’s the sort of highly articulate broad macro investor from whom anyone can learn.
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