Monday, November 19, 2012

Ray Dalio on Self Sufficiency and Economic Growth

Source: http://www.valuewalk.com

According to people familiar with the matter, Ray Dalio, CEO of Bridgewater Associates, has spoken at length about what makes countries competitive. The current issue under discussion is the ‘magic formula’ for economic success.

Ray Dalio notes that the most self-sufficient economies of the world are, surprisingly, the Asian emerging markets, whereas the most dependent are members of the Eurozone, Italy, and Spain. Economies like, India, Philippines and South Korea beat the USA by far on the self sufficiency scale. Bridgewater also concludes in their thesis that the self sufficient countries outperform in economic growth. Additionally, both developed and emerging economies have more or less equal correlation between their self sufficiency rating and the level of growth they achieve over long periods of time. The measure of being independent is based on indicators like the amount of hard work, government supports, and the number of hours worked.

Interestingly, countries with governments that provide a minimal welfare system and transfer very little to their people, find higher standing on the independence scale. Consequently, individuals keep their spending in range of their earnings (since support from government is absent), evolve into more independent economies, and thus achieve greater real economic growth per capita.

The governments of countries like France, Italy, and Sweden spend more than 50 percent of their GDP, while China and India spend very little (close to 20 percent). The ratio is small when compared with the size of the economy and governing bodies. As a result, the inference drawn from Bridgewater’s analysis is that people in these emerging economies kind of just live on their own and hence, are more self sufficient.

As support and redistribution of resources is limited in self sufficient countries, their people end up doing more hard work, so another point goes to their benefit. The correlation of hard work with future growth is 26 percent, individuals in developing countries spend more weekly hours working. China, Mexico, and India take the top position followed by Latin America, while US has good rating in the developed countries, while the most leisure-loving countries are in Europe. The relationship between weekly hours and economic growth has been 49 percent in the past decade according to Bridgewater’s calculations. Similarly, emerging nations take top honors in how much their people want to participate in the labor force. Therefore, we again see European countries taking the lower spots in labor participation. It is also fair to mention here that countries like, Greece, Italy, and Spain have a large portion of their labor force based on immigrants rather than locals.

Bridgewater’s thesis does find some noteworthy relationships and draws fair conclusions. But the indicators of self sufficiency, or the factors controlling it, are deeply inter-related, the presence of one (for example, reduced government spending) allows the other factor to thrive (higher participation in labor force and more weekly working hours). So the factors in themselves are not independent of one another. Moreover, the analysis does not include geographical elements, like natural resources. Therefore the scale defines only one kind of self-sufficiency and it does that very well. Bridgewater’s analysts think that their explanation of self sufficiency can help in devising policies for future, but it is of course, not the only factor that controls growth, as will be discussed in future posts.

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Ray Dalio: The Most Competitive Country in the World is

Source: http://www.valuewalk.com

I have talked about Ray Dalio and Bridgewater’s take on an economy’s self-sufficiency and the factors that control it, in a previous post. Ray Dalio and fellow analysts at Bridgewater concluded that countries that stand higher on an independence scale achieve greater real economic growth.

Based on the most influential of the above mentioned factors, i.e. competitiveness and indebtedness, their conclusion states that India, China, Mexico, and Russia have the highest potential for growth, while the least growth can be expected from Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The US lies somewhere in the middle and is expected to grow 2 percent in the upcoming years.

Bridgewater’s unusual, but perceptive approach on how countries achieve growth circles psychology of people and luck as prime elements that control competitiveness and indebtedness. Based on them, countries achieve varying levels of wealth and power. Here is how the evolution of an economy takes place:


  • In the early stages, people know they are poor and thus have limited resources and savings. The economy has reduced debt because they have no insurance.
  • In the subsequent stage, the wealth is increasing, but psychology is still the same. They save, work hard, and maneuver cautiously. But investment and exports increase and their assets, like gold and real estate, expand.
  • Now comes the part where they realize that they are actually rich. Their per capita income breaks records. The psychology shifts as the generation is replaced by new people who like to spend and enjoy more. Working hours go down, while expenditures on luxuries goes up.
  • In the next phase, the economy gets poorer, but the psychology of people and governments does not budge. Debt to earning ratio increases, incomes are high but spending is even higher, payment and government deficit expands. Infrastructure weakens and productive investments lose steam.
  • The bubble of being wealthy bursts and deleveraging and austerity measures come in play. They print more money and lower interest rates to help GDP growth. The previously powerful economies now start competing with developing and emerging economies.


Logically, countries that lie low on the debt curve and high on competitiveness achieve faster growth. One of the things that influences a competitive environment is how ‘productive’ the education system is. The countries that have a higher payback on what they spend on their population’s education, achieve greater growth over time. Less trade and communication barriers and reduced cost on raw materials also help in building up the competition.

On indebtedness, Bridgewater Associates observes how spending from debt can paint a picture of economic prosperity which is not substantial. Debts eventually stop raising relative to incomes and these countries then experience stringent debt regulations and thus achieve slower growth. While those that are less indebted have far brighter prospects of achieving further growth. The analysis uses metrics, like weekly hours , investing, corruption and education, all weighted against relative income to assess competitiveness while debt service levels, debt flow, and monetary policy are used to judge the level of indebtedness. Together, competitiveness and indebtedness are 73 percent correlated to GDP growth for the next ten years. India tops as being the most competitive, with China coming at second place. The US has a weak position on the basis of competitiveness. In measure of indebtedness, India beats all others again, while Russia and Mexico take the next places. The USA falls in the middle, while Japan, Greece, Hungary, and Spain come at the lowest end.

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Billionaire Ray Dalio’s Latest Stock Picks

Source: http://www.insidermonkey.com Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates is an extremely large, and extremely successful, hedge fund. Based in Westport and known for its extremely strong- some would say cultish- culture, it has grown to well over $100 billion in assets under management with little negative impact on its returns. Dalio himself has become a billionaire several times over due to the fund’s performance. We have gone through the fund’s recent 13F filing, which reports some of its equity positions from the end of September, and compared it to previous filings (see what Bridgewater has reported owning in the past) to get an idea of what Dalio and his team are thinking. Here are some themes that we’ve noticed in the fund’s portfolio:

Hardware. Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) and Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) were among Bridgewater’s top five stock picks at the end of June, and even with both stocks down during the third quarter- HP by 14% and Dell by over 20%- they remained at the top of the hedge fund’s portfolio as the stake in HP was increased by over 10% and the stake in Dell grew by over 60%. These companies are both trying to move away from PCs into more services-oriented businesses, but the market has been dissatisfied with their progress. It looks to us like Bridgewater believes that HP’s and Dell’s hardware businesses won’t do as poorly in the future as the market expects. It’s possible that the fund is in fact more confident that these players will make a successful transition to software and services, but we’d note that while Bridgewater did also report a sizable position in Oracle it had sold shares in that company during the third quarter. A hardware play seems to be more likely. We'd looked at Dell and Hewlett Packard recently and hadn’t considered either to be a good stock to buy despite forward P/Es in the 4-5 range.

Retail. This one we may be stretching a bit, but Bridgewater did add shares to its position in Staples- vaulting that to the #6 slot in its 13F portfolio- as well as increasing its holdings of Safeway Inc. (NYSE:SWY) by about a third to make that the second largest stock holding by market value in its 13F portfolio. The trailing, and forward, P/E multiples at these two companies all come out to 8x, which normally represents value territory. Both stocks also pay dividend yields of about 4%. Staples seems to be struggling more in terms of its business, as competition with Amazon likely helped drive its earnings down 32% in its second fiscal quarter versus a year earlier, but it’s Safeway- where net income has actually been up- that is the more popular short selling target with 30% of the outstanding shares held short. Safeway looks like a good potential value play, and while we’re considerably more cautious on Staples we could see an investor looking at that as well.

Uncool tech companies. Apple and Google are favorites of hedge funds (they'd topped our list of the most popular stocks among hedge funds for the second quarter), tech watchers, and consumers, but neither of those companies were to be found in Bridgewater’s 13F at all, let alone in its top holdings. It did own Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) (the fund’s largest equity position by market value; to be fair, it too had been a widely held stock by hedge funds) and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) (a position that it significantly increased to 1.3 million shares). Microsoft and Yahoo carry forward P/Es of 8 and 16 respectively, with Microsoft’s multiple being artificially low due to the release of new versions of Windows and Office. As such we can’t really say that that they are cheap, especially compared to Apple.

Bridgewater, at least in terms of its 13F portfolio, seems to be quite contrarian here. That’s paid off in some ways- it’s missed the recent correction at Apple and Google- but not so much in others (as HP and Dell have continued to drop so far this quarter). Potentially the most interesting ideas for investors are its larger positions in Safeway and Staples.

Friday, November 16, 2012

5 Big Buys By Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates has approximately $7.435 billion of assets under management in the latest quarter. The hedge fund manager has ranked in the previous 2 years as the largest and best-performing hedge fund manager in the world. Its 1,200-strong work force had generated $122 billion worth of assets under management by 2011. Its investment strategy is much like Soros' global macro style. The manager believes that the financial system plays a key role in macroeconomics.

In the latest quarter, the hedge fund made 95 new stock purchases and sold 52 out. I discuss the biggest buys of Bridgewater Associates in this article. They are BCE Inc. (BCE), Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR), Nucor Corporation (NUE), Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP), and Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI). I briefly show the past trading activities of the hedge fund with respect to these stocks and the stock's most recent performance and margins.

Shares HeldMarket Value% of PortfolioChange in Shares% ChangeProfit MarginEPS Growth (next 5 years)
BCE Inc.436,937$19,199,0110.26%436,937New14.10%3.15%
Dollar Tree Inc.150,146$7,250,5500.10%150,146New7.57%17.45%
Nucor Corporation329,712$12,614,7810.17%329,712New2.98%5.50%
Microchip Technology Incorporated422,376$13,828,5910.19%422,376New15.37%8.70%
Rogers Communications Inc.289,700$11,703,8800.16%289,700New12.34%8.27%


 BCE Inc. is a provider of communications and television services to Canadian customers. It operates under the brands Bell TV, Bell Home Phone, and Bell Fibe TV. The Verdun-based company has over 55,000 employees. Its third-quarter earnings of 76 Canadian cents per share slightly missed the estimate of 78 cents. Nonetheless, the company has met expectations with its $5.06 billion revenue. Last month, BCE's Bell was one of the World's Greenest Companies. It is the only Canadian company that made it in such a prestigious list.

Bridgewater bought 426, 937 shares of BCE in the third quarter; this is equivalent to 0.26% of its total holdings. The purchase's value was $19 million. This amount represents the highest investment so far that the fund manager had poured in BCE in at least within the last 9 quarters. It is noted that Bridgewater had sold all its previous holdings of the company in the first quarter of the current year. BCE's profitability is impressive with a margin of 14.10%. Finviz.com shows the long-term annual growth estimate of 3.15%. The P/E ratio is currently at 13.69, a bit lower than its forward P/E of 13.18. It is top dividend stock of Bridgewater with a yield of 5.37%. The stock has inched up in the year by about 5%.

Dollar Tree Inc.

Dollar Tree Inc. is an operator of discount variety stores, which offer products at a fixed price of $1.00. The company operates in the U.S. and Canada under the brands Dollar Tree, Deal$, and Dollar Bills. The company is soon to report its third-quarter earnings. A report shows that the company expects to beat analyst estimates for the third straight time. Bridgewater initiated a position in the company yet again. The purchase has amounted to $7.25 million and represents 0.10% of the hedge fund's total portfolio. The company has been a constant item in the 13F Filing of the hedge fund. Bridgewater had sold it out a couple of times in the last two years.

Currently, the stock is at a downward trend losing 9.26% compared with that of the previous year. However, current estimates show that earnings are likely to grow within the next 5 years at a remarkable rate of 17.45% per year. The company's sales had been growing in the previous 5 years at 10.81% per year. The company's forward P/E is 13.37, which is significantly lower than the current ratio at 16.83. Meanwhile, its profit margin is 7.57%.

Nucor Corporation

Nucor Corporation is a manufacturer and seller of steel and steel products in the U.S., Canada, and other countries. Its business lines are Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. The Charlotte-based steelmaker has recently entered into an agreement with Canada's Encana Oil & Gas for the development of onshore natural gas drilling program in the U.S. This program aims to develop a reliable and low-cost supply of fuel in the next 20 years.

Dalio's team has poured a significant 0.17% of its total portfolio on Nucor. Whalewisdom.com reported that the purchase has amounted to $12.624 million. This amount is about 10 times the position it opened in the first quarter of 2012, which it later sold in the quarter that followed.

The stock's performance had grown by 4.29% from last year. Its forward P/E ratio is 13.47, which is much lower than the current ratio of 25.4. The company's EPS of $1.58 is expected to jump to $2.98 next year. Nucor's sales had been growing on the average 6.30% each year within the previous 5 years. It also has a respectable dividend yield of 3.64%.

Microchip Technology Incorporated

Microchip Technology Incorporated is a semiconductor company based in Chandler, Arizona. The company has just signed a definitive agreement in the second quarter of 2012 to acquire Standard Microsystems Corporation. It is also said to make a remarkable move into mobile devices with a new technology to allow for interpretation of gestures. Ray Dalio has just bought MCHP shares amounting to $13.828 million at the end of the third quarter. The last time the company appeared on its 13F Filing was in the last quarter of 2011 where it sold all its holdings. The previous trading activities of Bridgewater on the company were all valued above $10 million.

Estimates at finviz.com show that Microchip's EPS will grow in the next 5 years at a decent annual rate of 8.70%. Its profit margin is above the 10 percent mark at 15.37%. MCHP's forward P/E is at 14.08, much lower than the prevailing one at 28.7. The stock, however, is currently sliding. In fact, it has lost 15.20% from last year.

Rogers Communications Inc.

Rogers Communications Inc. is another communications company that Bridgewater has favored in the latest quarter. The Toronto-based company operates wireless, cable and media segments. The company will soon deliver a world-leading internet experience through increasing speeds to 150 Mbps across its internet tiers. To date, this will be Rogers' fastest internet speed.

The hedge fund initiated a large position in the company in the latest quarter. The purchase was worth $11.7 million and was equivalent to 0.16% of the fund's total holdings. Aside from this, the most recent activity of Bridgewater in the company was that in the first quarter where it sold all its 275,200 shares. This third quarter investment was by far the largest within at least the previous two years.

The stock performance is on the rise. Compared with last year, the stock has grown by 16.40%. Its profitability makes it an attractive portfolio addition with a margin of 12.34%. The long-term annual growth of the EPS is 8.27% within the next 5 years. The P/E ratio is 14.98 while the forward ratio is 12.7. The stock is also one of Bridgewater's top dividend stocks with a yield of 3.67%.

Sources: http://seekingalpha.com & whalewisdom.com & finviz.com